Alright, alright, forgive the distortion, but if you've bought a next-gen console — and worldwide, more than 60 million of us have — then you are "wealthy or hardcore gamers," according to everyone's favorite video game software analyst, Michael Pachter. I don't consider myself hardcore. And my aforementioned $1,500 rent apparently qualifies me as wealthy.

Pachter's reasoning, in comments to GamePro, is that the next-gen consoles are not truly mass-market items yet, and won't be until their price point dips to $199.

"Around 90% of last-generation console sales were made at the $199 price point or below," he says. "Only wealthy or hardcore gamers have purchased consoles so far, given that the PS3 is still $399, the 360 is still $349, and the Wii is still $249. When prices drop below $200 (probably in 2010), the mass market [for 360 and PS3] will emerge."

Activision Blizzard - World's Most Valuable Video Game Company

Now that Activision and Blizzard have a set a July date for their merger to be put up to final shareholder vote, it's time for the game industry analysts to do what they do best - analyzing. Lazard Capital analyst Colin Sebastian doesn't just think the joining of the two will form a big game company...he says they'll be the best, at least from a financial point of view.

"We believe the transaction is set to create a formidable new digital media powerhouse and the most valuable interactive entertainment company worldwide, unlocking the value of industry juggernaut World of Warcraft, and possibly also setting a new benchmark for profit margins among publicly traded video game pure-plays"

Along with the rosy outlook, Sebastian is raising the company's target price (the price at which buyers will purchase the stock) from $33 to $40.

Activision Blizzard formation set for July 8 [GamesIndustry.biz]

Analyst: Saints Row 2 Trailer "Pompous"

Have you seen the recent Saints Row 2 trailer that makes direct comparisons to Grand Theft Auto IVto show why it's more fun? It's more tongue-in-cheek snarky than truly nasty, but apparently it prompted one analyst to counsel investors to take it with a grain of salt.

Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey said that going toe-to-toe with GTA IV on content is "an unusually pompous position... considering GTA IV is estimated to be the highest grossing 1st week entertainment release of all time."

Hickey also nodded to GTA IV's Metacritic-leading score, and maintained his "conservative" estimate for Saints Row 2 sales, "in light of mediocre game previews and a delayed release in-part from quality concerns."

In general, it seems a bit of a risky strategy for any title to compare itself, even jokingly, to a sales record-smasher like GTA IV. When I spoke to THQ during their preview event, though, a rep told me the aim was to show what was different about Saints Row, not necessarily to make superiority claims.

Hickey: Saint's Row 2 'Pompous' To Attack GTA IV [Gamasutra]

Pachter Earns Financial Times' Number One Award

The Financial Times/StarMine recently awarded Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter the designation of number one Earnings Estimator for the Software sector. As Pachter said, "Please note that there is no 'video games industry' and that my performance is compared to the analysts who cover not only video games, but those who cover other software, such as Microsoft, Oracle, and other such companies."

You may recall our Very Special Kotaku Feature earlier this year titled "Analyzing the Analysts," in which tireless former Kotaku intern Tori Floyd weighed game industry analysts against one another. The result? Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter scored the highest among his peers in terms of how often he was correct. Yeah, we totally called it.

In an email sent to the press titled "Some Tireless Self-Promotion," Pachter discussed the award:

Analyst: Record GTA Sales Change Nothing For EA's "80/20" Take-Two Bid

Record-setting launch numbers for Grand Theft Auto IV had no significant impact on Take-Two's stock price this morning, lending credence to analyst views that the share price already included the expectation of extraordinary first-week sales of the title.

What does this mean for EA's ongoing bid for Take-Two? Cowen and Co. analyst Doug Creutz said this morning that even the GTA IV launch couldn't have elevated the share price from January's 17 dollars per share to its current 26-dollar range, and that right now the elevated price is due to investor eagerness for the sale.

"Take-Two's self-imposed moratorium [on negotiations] is over," said Creutz. "We haven't heard anything out of either company in the last week. They could be talking... I still think the odds that the deal happens that are very high... I don't think GTA changes that at all."

Spongebob Savior: Will Kid-Friendly Licenses Save THQ?

Earlier today, we reported that THQ's portfolio of Nickelodeon titles has hauled in more than $1 billion in sales, with the publisher looking forward to its 2008 lineup of more Nickelodeon properties.

THQ's survived a series of hard knocks in the market thanks to the strength of its kid-friendly titles based on licenses from the likes of Nickelodeon and Pixar, even while its stock has taken a serious dive since January of this year. The company's about to announce its fiscal fourth quarter results tomorrow - as a new year begins for THQ, is it on track for smoother sailing?

Analyst Says That Gaming Needs More Super Stars

Evan Wilson, a senior research analyst at Pacific Crest Securities, has an interesting take on how game companies should handle their most talented members of their staffs—that's not so different from what we see in professional sports, music or the movie industry.

There are very few people in this world who know how to create hits...multiple hits. Those creative minds should be recognized and remunerated in the video game industry for their contribution as much as other forms of media. From a business perspective, that might be more expensive, but if the reward is better selling games the trade-off is worth it.

When it comes to Electronic Arts' takeover bid for Take-Two, we've heard nothing but silence for the past few weeks. In fact, it looks like business as usual for both companies; while EA's been utterly quiet on the topic, Take-Two has announced an executive hire and an Asian expansion as if nothing were going on.

But tomorrow, Take-Two is set to hold its regularly-scheduled annual meeting for its shareholders, where they can hear from the executives and vote on internal matters. And although this may look like just another routine affair, it might become clear on Thursday night whether EA's bid is likely to succeed— or whether it will end up dead in the water.

Not so clear on what's going on? Hit the jump for the whole story, including the anatomy of a takeover, possible outcomes, the reasons behind Take-Two's resistance, and more.

49 Million U.S. Gamers Buy Used Games To The Tune Of $1.3 Billion

Used games, the bane of publishers and the bread and butter of retailer GameStop, is a $1.3 billion business in the U.S. alone, reports research firm OTX. Their findings from the MI6 summit breaks down the used games biz, showing the buying habits of folks who dabble in the pre-owned, all of which is detailed at the report at Gamasutra.

There are some interesting, if dry research results, as OTX profiles "Glutton Gamers"—the type that turns around new software fast enough to make a decent return on their investment when reselling—what games are generally considered "keepers"—sorry Carnival Games—and just how much of that trade-in cash gets funneled back into the industry. Worth looking at if only for the Glutton Gamer graphic. It's XTREME!

Analysis: 49 Million U.S. Gamers Buy Used Games [Gamasutra]

Wedbush Morgan's gaming guru Michael Pachter sees big things for Nintendo's Wii Fit in North America, where the combination personal trainer and balance board are slated for a May 19th release. The analyst predicts the package could sell upwards of 4 million units if Nintendo does it up right.

"I really don't know what the spend will be, but it could be 10 - 12% of projected sales. If we assume a retail price of $100, that's $10 million in marketing for each 1 million units sold. If they go mainstream (have Oprah demo the device), I could see them selling 3 - 4 million, maybe more. That suggests the potential for $30 - 40 million in marketing.]

Update: Pachter informed us that the New York Post writer never spoke to him and misquoted the article's original Game Daily source. Updated text accordingly.

Report: Nintendo Planning 'Biggest Ever' Marketing for Wii Fit Launch [GameDaily]

Chinese Game Market Grew to $1.66 Billion In '07

Analyst Calls Bullshit On EA Being Rockstar's "White Knight"

EA really wants Take-Two. Actually, they mostly want Rockstar Games and Grand Theft Auto—and they want them now. EA CEO John Riccitiello certainly thinks that the swallowing of Rockstar would be good for the developer of Manhunt, GTA and Bully, telling the New York Times "We, in many ways, represent a white knight." The kind of white knight who can provide stability and exposure, assumably.

Analysts, though? They think that EA's full of BS. Janco Partners' Mike Hickey told GameDaily.biz that "My belief is Rockstar would be perfectly happy if EA never put a bid in at all." Hickey called Riccitiello's perception as Rockstar savior "bullshit" not to mention disrespectful to Take-Two management and its developers.

Other analysts had their say, including Michael Pachter, who noted that Riccitiello's "white knight" analogy was "perhaps a misplaced attempt to sound clever." Yep. Fightin' words.

Analyst: EA's Riccitiello 'Disrespectful' Towards Rockstar, Take-Two [GameDaily.biz]

Analyst: Take-Two Talks Buyout Before GTA IV

Despite predicting fiscal year sales of Grand Theft Auto IV to reach 9 million, with 6 million shipping out the first week, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that Take-Two is ready to talk EA buyout. Citing a poor lineup over the next year, with major sequels such as BioShock 2 a long way off, Pachter believes that Take-Two will abandon it's stance on not discussing a potential buyout until after GTA IV is released.

"We expect that in order to save face, Take-Two management will withdraw its demand that any discussions wait until after the launch of GTA IV, and we think that management will engage in discussions with EA,"

GTA IV to sell 9m units, ship 6m in first week [GamesIndustry.biz]

In reaction to the rumors spreading about a new Xbox 360 with a 60GB hard disk, super analyst Michael Pachter decided to take a break from using his immense powers of precognition to make a simple, obvious observation. 20GB is too small.

"I think the console [manufacturers] all misjudged the quantity of downloadable content and the opportunity to actually download meaningful content, and so what sounded like a good idea in 2003 or 2004 in the design stage with the 20GB hard drive on the 360 was just not sufficient. Frankly, the surprise to me is that the new SKU is [purportedly] 60GB. I mean, I would think they'd introduce a 200GB or 500GB and eliminate the 20GB and make the 120GB the standard cheapie one.

Pachter: 20GB Xbox 360 No Longer Sufficient [GameDaily]

Pachter: EA Wants Take-Two For Sports, GTAIV Is "Gravy"

We've already heard EA's story recounting why they're interested in acquiring Take-Two, but analyst Michael Pachter gives the real scoop. And unlike many have claimed, Take-Two's appeal has very little to do with GTAIV, which he calls "gravy." It's all about the sports.

For EA, sports is enough to pay for the whole [$2 billion] thing. If you get rid of sports competition, you suddenly add Take Two's $200 million per year in sports revenue and EA doesn't compete on price anymore.

Monday's feature took a broad, anecdotal look at ten different analysts, explaining a little about who the analysts are and what they do. For your enjoyment and discussion, we present to you today all of the predictions made by the analysts and our verdict on each of them.

There's been some changes to these results since the original article was released on Monday, due to the availability of new information. While this does change some of the numbers, it also indicates how fluid many of these predictions are, and the challenge of pin-pointing exact answers for many of them, both for journalists, traders who rely on the analysts for smart business choices, and gamers who want to know how well the industry is doing.

Here's the proof that being correct the most often doesn't always mean you're the best analyst.

We've all seen their work. "Analysts predict PS3 price drop by September." "New DS to be released by Nintendo." "Wii will be the top selling console of 2007." Analysts seem to descend from their mountaintops once a month to tell us the future of the video game industry. So what secret rituals do these soothsayers conduct to get their predictions? And, more importantly, how often are these predictions right?

After a look at ten analysts, 100 predictions, and first hand accounts from video game industry analysts Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of The simExchange, and founder of The simExchange Brian Shiau, we managed to gain a little bit of insight into the murky crystal ball used to prognosticate and pontificate.

The PS3 Will Triumph In 2011?